Indicators of the Road Ahead for Israel

By: Frimet and Arnold Roth

Published: December 6th, 2012

Israeli Markava tanks returning to thier base, after morning patrol near Gaza.
Photo Credit: Tsafrir Abayov/Flash90

With so much turbulence about (especially now but also in the past several years), it's easy to overlook the fact that Israel has fought no wars against any Arab state since the Yom Kippur War of 1973.

As Robert Satloff notes in the first of the articles we extract below, Israel's experiences over these last four decades include "successful diplomacy with intermittent bouts of terrorism and asymmetric war against non-state actors." Looking ahead, there's more than a little reason to take a sober view of the future.

The End of the Forty-Year Peace between Israel and Arab States Robert Satloff  in the New Republic: With Hamas' strong political backing from regional states, future historians might very well view the recent Gaza conflict as the first episode of a new era of renewed inter-state competition and, potentially, inter-state conflict in the Arab-Israeli arena... The "old new Middle East" was a region of peace, trade, and regional cooperation. It reached its heyday in the mid-'90s, when Israelis were welcome everywhere from Rabat to Muscat... The "new new Middle East" is the region defined by the twin threats of Iranian hegemonic ambitions and the spread of radical Sunni extremism, where Israelis are not only unwelcome but where they are building fences along their borders to separate themselves from the fight around them... There is much the U.S. can do to postpone the return to inter-state Arab-Israeli conflict. Such a strategy begins with strengthening American-Israeli cooperation and includes such initiatives as preventing Hamas from winning a political victory over the moribund Palestinian Authority, incentivizing moderate behavior from the calculating Islamist leaders of Egypt, speeding the demise of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, and preventing the collapse of a wobbly Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

Hamas Tells Fatah: Let's Fight Israel Together Khaled Abu Toameh in the Jerusalem Post: Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar on Monday called on Fatah to join his movement in the fight against Israel and to stop wasting time and effort with the peace process. "Our hands are extended to Fatah to join the program of [armed] resistance and the liberation of Palestine... Let's join hands and carry the rifle together."

Hizbullah TV Claims Its Rockets Can Reach Eilat  Zach Pontz in the Algemeiner: Israel's Channel 2 television broadcast a video from Hizbullah's Al-Manar TV claiming that the terror group's rockets could reach as far as Eilat. The segment, accompanied by many graphic descriptions, claimed: "Hizbullah has the following capabilities: the destruction of buildings in Tel Aviv; damage to ports and ships in the Mediterranean and the Red Sea and capability to hit specific targets with missiles on the residents and resources of Israel." Last week Hizbullah terror chief Hassan Nasrallah told a crowd: "Israel, which was jolted by Fajr-5 missiles [from Gaza] - how will it be able to endure thousands of missiles falling on Tel Aviv and other cities if it attacks Lebanon? Our campaign against Israel is from Kiryat Shmona to Eilat."