Everybody is saying that
this coming year will be momentous; that this will be the year when the
decision on whether or not to attack Iran will be made; that this will be a
decisive year in the political arena; that this year will be engraved in
history; that it will be unforgettable.
I am not a prophet and it could be that this year will fit the bill as above, but I am not at all sure that that the predictions are accurate. In my opinion, the upheavals waiting to happen are not about military or political moves. They are part of a much broader strategic structure.
Personally, I do not believe that Netanyahu will order the army to carry out an open attack on Iran. I think that the time to have done so was when Ahmadinijad declared his intention to destroy Israel and began practical preparations to achieve his goal. From the moment that Israel chose the strategy of passing the buck to the nations of the world, the legitimacy of Israeli action against Iran was lost – both the world and the Israeli Left agree on that. Israel's repeated attempts to force the world to act are like trying to close the stable doors after the horses have run away. And if the US does define a "red line" for Iran, will it be worth more than President Eisenhower's guarantee?
When Israel retreated from Sinai after the 1956 Sinai Campaign, the Americans signed a written guarantee that they would not allow Egypt to blockade the Straits of Tiran to Israeli shipping. When Naaser invaded the Sinai and blocked the straits, Prime Minister Levi Eshkol called President Lyndon Johnson and reminded him of the US guarantee; the unambiguous, signed "red line" that the Americans provided in exchange for Israel's retreat. "I can't find my copy," LBJ stonewalled over the phone. Now, Israel is pressuring Obama to give us another guarantee that will conveniently get "lost" when it is needed most.
I will be more than happy if my evaluation is wrong. No, I do not want to go to war. Not at all. But more than I fear war, I fear that Israel will slowly disintegrate, making war extraneous. I cannot see how Israel can exist and flourish in the long term in a nuclear Middle East under Iranian hegemony. More than I fear war, I fear that our enemies will not need it.
Read More:
http://www.jewishisrael.org/eng_contents/articles/73/article7301.html
I am not a prophet and it could be that this year will fit the bill as above, but I am not at all sure that that the predictions are accurate. In my opinion, the upheavals waiting to happen are not about military or political moves. They are part of a much broader strategic structure.
Personally, I do not believe that Netanyahu will order the army to carry out an open attack on Iran. I think that the time to have done so was when Ahmadinijad declared his intention to destroy Israel and began practical preparations to achieve his goal. From the moment that Israel chose the strategy of passing the buck to the nations of the world, the legitimacy of Israeli action against Iran was lost – both the world and the Israeli Left agree on that. Israel's repeated attempts to force the world to act are like trying to close the stable doors after the horses have run away. And if the US does define a "red line" for Iran, will it be worth more than President Eisenhower's guarantee?
When Israel retreated from Sinai after the 1956 Sinai Campaign, the Americans signed a written guarantee that they would not allow Egypt to blockade the Straits of Tiran to Israeli shipping. When Naaser invaded the Sinai and blocked the straits, Prime Minister Levi Eshkol called President Lyndon Johnson and reminded him of the US guarantee; the unambiguous, signed "red line" that the Americans provided in exchange for Israel's retreat. "I can't find my copy," LBJ stonewalled over the phone. Now, Israel is pressuring Obama to give us another guarantee that will conveniently get "lost" when it is needed most.
I will be more than happy if my evaluation is wrong. No, I do not want to go to war. Not at all. But more than I fear war, I fear that Israel will slowly disintegrate, making war extraneous. I cannot see how Israel can exist and flourish in the long term in a nuclear Middle East under Iranian hegemony. More than I fear war, I fear that our enemies will not need it.
Read More:
http://www.jewishisrael.org/eng_contents/articles/73/article7301.html
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