April 28, 2011

The American Aliyah . . . . and how it will happen

You heard it here first. By 2025 there will be over 1 million American Jews living in Israel.
Actually – you didn’t hear it here first. We read it in the Tanach, Hashem told us this would happen through His prophets over three thousand years ago.
The process of Kibbutz Galyout, the ingathering of the exiles, has been taking place for well over a century. Since the first Russian Jew had enough of the pogroms and headed eastward, there has been a mass movement to the Holy Land from three of the four corners of the earth. Israel today boasts millions of Jews who have roots in the Arab Lands, Asia, South America, Europe, and Africa.
The only part of the world that hasn’t come home en masse is North America.
That’s about to change.
It won’t change because of Zionism, persecution, or even, Hashem forgive me, religious observance. But Hashem is guiding His hand to help us. It will happen for the simplest of reasons – self preservation.
Here’s how millions of American Jews will find themselves in Israel by 2025:
Over the next 15 years, the economic fortunes of America and Israel will cross paths in opposite directions. For the first time since World War II, the U.S. government has amassed a debt load equal to its entire economy. During WWII, all of this money was used towards industrial production of the American war machine. When the war was over, the factories were already built. The capacity was in place for the greatest economic expansion mankind has ever seen. While the debt of the U.S. continued to rise in the post World War II period, the economy grew so much faster that the debt to GDP ratio fell dramatically.
Until now.
Today, more than any government department except defense, America spends $420 billion a year on interest for its debt. This is while interest rates at all-time lows. If interest rates were to “revert to the mean” and hit, say 5%, this amount will double. America owes five times as much debt as they report to the world in the form of future Social Security and Medicare payments. They have to come up with $100 trillion over the next 30 years. Over 60% of U.S. debt is in the form of two year notes. This means that if interest rates were to suddenly spike, America is very exposed. America does not have the luxury of having locked up low interest rates for decades in the form of 30 year treasury notes – they stopped issuing them a while back. If rates go up, within 24 months, the total interest charge to the $14 trillion debt will skyrocket exponentially.
The only way America can pay it’s credit card and keep growing is by printing money. The contemporary term is quantitative easing, or QE3. This is the death blow for any economy. This is what did Germany in during the 1920s. it’s already having an impact today.
As time wears on, less and less of that money will be readily available to the average American family. Taxes will have to go up to service debt, or at least to ensure that after the government pays the interest, there will be enough left to provide the American public the bare essentials. Taxes can go up to 50%. After taxes, the government will continue to print money to “make ends meet,” i.e., fill in the gaps. This causes inflation – which means that after your pay your taxes, the buying power of the money you have left will quickly erode. This is why printing money is often referred to as the “invisible tax.”
Until America fundamentally restructures itself, a process that will take many years of very painful rebuilding, it will continue its economic decline.
Compare that to Israel.

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