Remember that vote that the Likud Central Committee was about to have last week? Well, after marathon talks with Likud Central Committee chairman Moshe Kahlon, a sinking feeling that he could not muster the 70% needed to change the Likud Constitution, and a court order implying that even if he did, the vote would be invalidated as illegal, Netanyahu canceled the vote 24 hours before it took place.
Likud elections are scheduled for April 28th. That's 51 days from now. If they happen, then Manhigut Yehudit will more than likely take the party. The reasons are as follows:
1) The faction is expected to more than double their current numbers from 122 to 250, if not triple or even quadruple.
2) If that pans out, we may even take the Likud internal court and law committee.
3) If we do, then there's no way Netanyahu can maintain any semblance of control over his party and he will proceed to form a giant political garbage dump consisting of Likudniks that want nothing to do with Moshe Feiglin, Ehud Barak whose party wants nothing to do with him either, some runaways from Kadima, and - why not - let's just throw Meretz in there or something.
4) The garbage dump, Kadima II: will at first poll very high, which is why he will form it. But then a sudden thought will hit the average Israeli. That thought is: Haven't we seen this before?
5) Likud will be left to those faithful to the land of Israel and their Jewish identity.
That is, if the Supreme Court lets the elections actually happen. What is it they call themselves? The "Guard dogs of democracy" or something like that? So you'd think they'd allow democratic elections to take place. But don't be too sure about that.
Netanyahu has requested a staying order from the High Court to stop the elections. The case is set to be heard on the 25th. That will be the final hurdle for this round of the fight.
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