September 3, 2010

Israeli religious future By Obadiah Shoher

Orthodox and Haredi Jews make up a growing proportion of Israeli Jewish society. With the birth rate among them two and four times, respectively, the national average, their share of the population is poised to triple within a single generation. The relative increase will probably continue for two or three generations until the birth rate among the religious population levels off and comes down to society’s average. That process is well underway, with the typical number of births in haredi families having dropped from 12-17 to 8-9 in a single generation. As more Orthodox women and haredi men take jobs, their families are bound to shrink.

The shift in the proportion of the religious population will be mitigated to a yet-unpredictable degree by the secularization of religious communities. In the age of the Internet, they cannot remain as closed as they were before, and the opening of their communities drives their values to the lowest common denominator with the surrounding milieu, thus secularization. Israeli religious communities are treading the path followed by Jewish religious communities of Eastern Europe 150 years ago.

Religious communities will become more radical. One reason for this is the prevalence of male births caused by the low frequency of intercourse. Biologically, significant delays in sexual relations slightly increase the probability of conceiving a boy. An excess of unmarried males greatly radicalizes communities.

Another factor is ideological: when the leaders of a community which opens itself to the outside world moderate their values to preserve their connection to the flock, radical teachers gain prominence. The Catholic Church today has a more extreme stance on moral virtues—notably its opposition to abortion—than two hundred years ago. Wahhabism, an unusually fundamentalist teaching, is the fastest-spreading movement in Islam today, challenged by the even more radical Salafist version. When ancient Israeli society fell apart, rabbis radicalized Judaism by erecting “a fence around the law” with many additional prohibitions. Jewish religious radicalism can take two forms: legalistic halachic and nationalist, the last being more probable. Halachic regulation became so expansive that it regulates every smallest action of a haredi Jew, making it impossible for any single man to learn all of his halachic obligations. Just at the time when the number of ordained rabbis has skyrocketed and the pressure for them to invent more halachic norms is at its peak, there is no room for expansion. We might expect, therefore, a tide of rabbis who concentrate on political issues rather than halacha.

The rabbinical establishment will efficiently oppose them with its money power. By keeping its flock from holding jobs, haredi rabbis control them through social welfare distribution. This is how the Soviets controlled their subjects. Radical rabbis will lack funding and thus remain on the fringes. The absolute number of their adherents, however, will increase tremendously. They will destabilize the moderate Israeli society for its own good.

At the same time, the religious population will be further pauperized. Religiosity exhibits a positive correlation with poverty. Paupers are religious, while affluent people, immersed in consumerism, rarely ask themselves existential questions. In the modern world, income is increasingly related to secular education, which despite Rabbi Soloveitchik’s efforts, remains largely off-limits to religious Jews. Secular education provides answers to existential questions which are contrary to religious postulates; therefore affluent and educated people generally leave religion. Paupers, on one had, tend to be radical, but on the other they depend on the government for welfare handouts. As the religious population grows and society’s mainstream increasingly opposes subsidizing it, the religious community might find itself financially ostracized and turn radical.

Assimilation is death -- Obadiah Shoher

The assimilation of American Jews is irreversible, and there is no point in expending great resources to counter it. Even if the intermarriage rate were to be brought down miraculously to 30% from the current figure of 70-95% among atheists, in three generations the number of Jews would decrease by two-thirds.

The goal now is to jump off the ship and not sink along with it. Israel makes many American Jews uncomfortable as she reminds them of their own unwelcome roots. Their conscious choice—to normalize Israel by making her as liberal and peaceful as America—is based on their subconscious wish that Israel cease to exist. By connecting Israel to American Jewry, Israelis subject themselves to untold political pressures.

More importantly, American Jews act as a beacon to post-Zionist Israeli Jews. If Jews can live outside Israel, be respected, and dictate US policies, then it would be sensible to move from Israel to America. Decadence is sweet, and assimilated American Jews draw their Israeli brethren. So far, America has not used its major weapon against Israel—immigration policy. The day the United States opens its borders to Israelis, our demography will change radically.

This will happen unless Israel decries foreign assimilation in the strongest terms, abandons ties with Jewish organizations that tolerate interfaith families, and tells her youth that they can be Jews in Israel, or good people in America, but never both.

People are not only a stomach, but also a brain. Not only brain, but also heart. Not only I, but We. I wouldn’t like a person who insults me continually, much less someone who insults us. The Bible says, “Love your neighbor,” but a neighbor is one who deviates from accepted ways along with you, not one who abandons you to join the accepted ways. Had I been born just a few years earlier, I would have had two chances out of three to end up in a gas chamber—and I’m very sensitive to Jews who finish the Nazis’ job. Such people remain Jewish, but they are Jewish criminals. Had they murdered an old lady, I would have helped them evade prosecution, but they murder the Jews in themselves, in their children and grandchildren. And there is no room for tolerance.

Will to Fight - Obadiah Shoher

In 1914, the nations of Europe rushed into a war they thought would be a
slam-dunk affair. When events turned sour, they quickly lost interest in it, but
lacked the basic honesty to admit the new status quo, and sacrificed millions of
their citizens in what was by then a war lost for all sides.
The expansionist US government then joined the war, and protracted it still
more. Ignoramuses think Wilson was an idealist who wished to end all wars. In
fact, his Fourteen Points were an answer to the Bolsheviks. The Russians ended
the war on abysmal terms but saved untold numbers of their soldiers from
senseless slaughter. Public opinion pressed the Entente countries for similar
action. Wilson, accordingly, spoke of peace the way the Nazis did twenty years
later: in oblique terms, which are potentially disastrous for one’s opponent,
who is thus made certain to reject them—and be painted as an enemy of peace.
That seems to have been the last bout of militancy by hedonistic European
cultures. In the current political reality, it is unthinkable for Germany to
attack France: the countries even share a currency. France last fought a
significant offensive war against Germany two hundred years ago. Arguably, this
term is sufficient to establish non-belligerence. Germany was able to stage
aggression because it was authoritarian. Multiparty parliaments are normally not
warlike for the same reason that they cannot reach other decisions of
significance. Subverting democracy remains an option, like the Nazis subverted
the Weimar Republic, but short of a major economic upheaval that’s unlikely,
especially considering that a huge economic downturn in Weimar Germany was
compounded by a clearly non-viable political structure, huge grievances, decades
of militant propaganda, and a significant strain of military aristocracy that
has now been extinguished. The resurgence of violence is not impossible: French
nukes won’t play MAD deterrence well because both sides of any conflict would
fear using them, and would fight with conventional weapons, just as they
abstained from using chemical weapons in WWII. A spontaneous, fast, and
short-lived buildup of militancy such as occurred during the Nazi era cannot be
ruled out, but by its nature it remains unpredictable and highly unlikely. To
imagine modern parties with vested economic interests and strong electoral
support to abrogate their political power in favor of a dictator is
far-fetched.
In the modern economy, wealth is a function of intellect rather than land, and
cannot be conquered. Wars are not feasible, and are only fought for the sake of
national grandeur. But people go only so far for nationalist goals. Fighting in
remote lands is okay until too many coffins reach the homeland. American losses,
rather than lofty ideals, fueled anti-Vietnam protests: students did not want to
become cannon fodder. Protests against the Iraq war quickly faded because
American casualties are low and affect only willing recruits, rather than the
general population. Terrorism might change that situation: Americans won’t
fight even backwater wars like the one in Afghanistan if such wars provoke
significant domestic terrorism.
National grandeur has become less important in consumerist societies. Wilson
and Roosevelt dragged their country into two world wars against popular
sentiment, but today the government cannot muster support even for dismantling
rogue nuclear facilities abroad. Media has become much more powerful compared to
government, which exceedingly relies on polls to conduct its policy—and media
are largely liberal. People who buy $5 million life insurance policies or hold
health insurance with a similar spending cap won’t readily endanger their
lives in military adventures abroad. The old European nations are still more
tired: France reneged on its guarantees to the Czechs, faked some nominal
military moves in support of Poland, and practically avoided fighting when
attacked by Germany. European nations are too old even to defend themselves
against the Muslim immigrant hordes, and accept them with the same ease they
accepted the German yoke seventy years ago.
The West’s leftovers of national grandeur won’t help Israel. America
defended France in a bloody war, but did not lift a finger to defend Israel in
1948 or 1967. There is no grandeur in helping Jews. Israel, therefore, will be
left alone to confront the young and militant Muslim nations. And the first and
automatic use of nuclear weapons is our only hope to win these wars feasibly.

Best regards,
Obadiah Shoher

An Alternative to a 'Palestinian' State - Feiglin

At a recent lecture in Los Angeles, I was asked about my alternative to a 'Palestinian State'. The solution that I propose, promotion of Arab emigration, is predicated on the following points:

A. The Land of Israel belongs exclusively to the Jewish Nation.
B. There is no "Palestinian nation" and aspirations for a "Palestinian State" are strictly for Arab propaganda purposes. The Arabs of Israel and their terror organizations are being offered a state on a silver platter – something that has never happened to any other group in history. Nevertheless, they have repeatedly rejected this gift. The reason that they reject this more-than-generous offer is because their real and exclusive goal is not Arab sovereignty, but the destruction of Jewish sovereignty. Thus, any plan that relies on a third side, and particularly on the good will and cooperation of the Arab countries, is unrealistic.
C. The solution for the Arabs of Judea, Samaria and Gaza must be based on the facts on the ground and not on the fantasies of Oslo.

There are three facts on the ground that support this position:

1. The Arabs want to leave. Time and again, polls of the Arab public – including polls carried out by Arab institutions – show that a large majority of the Arab population in Judea, Samaria and Gaza is interested in finding a better future elsewhere
2. Many Western countries and Arab emirates are interested in Arab immigrants from Israel. Quite a few Western countries have negative population growth (less than two children per family) and need immigrants to help sustain their economies. The question is not who will build the skyscrapers in Montreal, but whether they will be built by a Sudanese immigrant whose only construction experience is with mud huts, or by an immigrant from Ramallah, who has lived alongside a modern, Western culture for the past forty years and who has experience with building skyscrapers.
3. We have all the money necessary to promote this process. Israel spends approximately 150 billion dollars per decade -10% of its budget - on the Oslo vision of partitioning the Land. The price will continue to inflate as the relatively less expensive separation fence is replaced with ballistic missile batteries to defend our cities from flying pipes and as Israel's towns dig themselves underground in self defense. Exchanging this defensive paradigm for the emigration proposal would release approximately one quarter of a million dollars to be allotted to every Arab family that would emigrate from Israel.

The above proposal would solve Israel's local security problems, save it billions, give the Arabs mired in the "Palestinian struggle" a new lease on life and provide some Western countries with much-needed working hands. Do we dare to emerge from our Oslo box and implement it?

The Ultimate Objective: Redemption

Since the Nation of Israel was born, its ultimate aspiration has been the coming of Mashiach and the complete and final redemption. Unlike the very partial goals of modern Zionism (safe-haven, peace, international recognition, etc.) the goal of redemption is all-inclusive and redefines the motivation for the return of the Jewish People to the Land of Israel. It illuminates the life of the Nation with a new light, content and consciousness – for the individual and for the whole.

Our Sages have defined various stages in the process leading to redemption. These stages include establishing sovereignty, waging war against Israel's mortal enemies, building the holy Temple on the Temple Mount and the ingathering of the exiles. The culmination of the redemption process is, of course, the Messianic era, when the world will be rectified and united in its service of G-d.

These are the ultimate objectives of the Jewish state. Authentic Jewish leaders must always have these ultimate goals before them so that they can recognize historic opportunity when it arises. As the Sages (Rambam, Laws of Kings and Wars 12:2) reiterate, though, we do not know exactly how these stages will manifest in reality until they actually happen. What we can and must do in the interim is to create the fertile ground in which these ultimate objectives can flourish; a Jewish state whose shorter-term goals propel us toward our ultimate goals.


Jewish Identity for the Jewish State
Jewish Education
Jewish Society
Land of Israel
Jewish Security
Jewish Justice
Jewish Economy
Religion and State
Jewish Media
Arabs

(http://www.jewishisrael.org/eng_contents/policies/policies.html)

Will it Work?
Redemption is a Divine process that is already working! The redemptive process is well under way, as exemplified by the many positive and miraculous accomplishments of modern day Israel. We are pointing the way toward the next stage of this Divine process. When we realign our national goals with our ultimate, historic Jewish goals, we pave the way for determination and decisiveness in implementing our objectives.

Historic Opportunities
Clarity of purpose affords leaders with the tools that they need to identify historic opportunities as they develop and to capitalize on them to further the nation's goals. (If the goals are unclear, it is impossible to recognize historic opportunities. This leads to near-sighted policies and misreading of historic geopolitical developments -- as most aptly demonstrated by current Israeli policy).
Determination to identify and capitalize on historic opportunities creates a national leadership that is also responsible. Leading one's nation through the redemptive process is daunting, and the leaders may be tempted to take premature initiative to advance the nation's goals. However, the knowledge that historic opportunities can and will arise as part of the Divine plan gives the leaders the serenity and faith to lead the nation on a calculated yet courageous path.

10 Reasons why Israel Needs Mahigut Yehudit! #10

A leader who believes in G-d

Moshe Feiglin fears G-d. His actions will not generate criminal investigations.

Moshe Feiglin has a clear, consistent plan that interfaces with Jewish history. His vision does not change according to the results of the latest polls.

Moshe Feiglin says what he thinks, even when his opinion angers Israel's power elites.

Feiglin genuinely cares. He proposes courageous and original solutions and does not recycle the solutions that have already failed before.

Only a person loyal to his wife and family will be loyal to his nation and his voters.

Feiglin is willing to pay the price of his convictions.

Feiglin will act to restore the control in our country to the citizens. He will end the control of the "Big Brothers" in the justice system, media and the unacceptable taxation bureaucracy.

10 Reasons why Israel Needs Mahigut Yehudit! #9

A moral society

Loyalty as a national ethic:

Loyalty to family, to the nation, the land, our POWs, our allies and Jewish identity.

Empowerment of the family in education, public relations and economic legislation.

Encouragement of community responsibility for welfare of its residents.

District elections and transfer of state responsibilities to the community.

10 Reasons why Israel Needs Mahigut Yehudit! #8

Unbiased media open to the entire nation

The people will choose whom to watch and to whom to listen
Any individual or group that wish to broadcast will pay for a frequency and broadcast as they see fit, within the parameters of the laws of slander and in keeping with state security as already legislated. The Broadcasting Authority will be closed.

10 Reasons why Israel Needs Mahigut Yehudit! #7

Zero tolerance for Arab disloyalty

Zero tolerance for Arab citizens' defiance.

Enforcement of planning and construction laws.

Enforcement of tax law.

Enforcement of traffic law.

Enforcement of laws against robbery, rape and vandalism.

Enforcement of laws of treason.

10 Reasons why Israel Needs Mahigut Yehudit! #6

To restore justice to the justice system

Israel's justice system must be liberated from the grasp of the radical Left:

Israel's judges should be elected by the public's elected representatives and should reflect the values of the nation. The election process must be conducted with complete transparency.

Legislation of the role and authority of the Attorney General.

The Attorney General will be appointed by the government and will serve throughout the government's term.

The State Prosecution will become an independent body to be elected by Israel's elected representatives.

Every candidate and office holder in the justice system will have proven knowledge of the Jewish Legal Code.